Keywords
Factores afectivos, inteligenica artificial, autocontrol, rendimiento académico, estudiantes universitarios, factores académicos
Abstract
En el ámbito educativo, el rendimiento académico representa los resultados de procesos de evaluación y se relaciona con logros de aprendizaje. La identificación temprana de los factores que influyen en el rendimiento permite orientar intervenciones oportunas para prevenir la repitencia y el abandono estudiantil. Ante esto, la investigación tuvo como propósito aplicar modelos de Machine Learning para predecir y explicar el rendimiento académico, enfocándose particularmente en estudiantes con antecedentes de reprobación. Se utilizó un enfoque cuantitativo, con diseño no experimental y análisis ex post facto, basado en una población de 12211 estudiantes universitarios. La información se recopiló mediante un cuestionario de 32 ítems sobre aspectos sociodemográficos, socioeconómicos, emocionales, institucionales-académicos, autoeficacia y autocontrol, anclado a la opción matrícula del estudiante, y una base institucional con siete variables académicas. Se entrenaron tres algoritmos de clasificación supervisada: Random Forest, XGBoost y CatBoost. Además, se utilizó el método SHAP para interpretar los resultados del modelo. El procesamiento y análisis se realizó en Python utilizando Google Colab. CatBoost mostró el mejor desempeño, alcanzando un recall del 70 % para la clase “reprobada”. Los indicadores más influyentes fueron: facultad, carrera, nivel o ciclo, estado emocional, atención docente y desempeño académico previo. Se concluye que la reprobación está influenciada, por variables académicas-institucionales, seguidas de emocionales, sociodemográficas y socioeconómicas; y, se destaca el valor del Machine Learning interpretativo (SHAP) para apoyar la toma de decisiones educativas.
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Received: 2025-01-06 | Reviewed: 2025-03-28 | Accepted: 2025-03-29 | Online First: 2025-07-21 | Published: 2025-07-24
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Fabricio Vladimir Vinces-Vinces., Miguel Flores-Sanchéz. (2025). Aplicación de Machine Learning para predecir y explicar el rendimiento académico universitario. Comunicar, 33(82). 10.5281/zenodo.16121350
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